Famend crypto entrepreneur and former BitMex head Arthur Hayes has stepped into the highlight with one other essay on monetary markets, U.S. Federal Reserve financial coverage and, after all, cryptocurrencies. Hayes’ new piece is named Bouncy Fortress.

The essay comes at a somewhat attention-grabbing time on the crypto market, with Bitcoin (BTC) up greater than 25% for the reason that starting of the month, after having proven exceptionally apathetic motion and corresponding volatility in earlier months. Within the new essay, the writer identifies three doable situations that ought to assist him win no matter means issues go.

Arthur Hayes’ commerce setups

The primary situation is that Bitcoin’s present bullish conduct is a pure rebound from the lows and BTC slowly climbs up till U.S. greenback liquidity circumstances are ample to create highly effective momentum. In that case, Hayes’ plan could be to attend for affirmation of measures that may enhance liquidity circumstances, i.e., a pivot of U.S. financial coverage, and enter Bitcoin even when it doubles in time, say to $40,000. The logic is {that a} pivot would imply a hike to $69,000 and better.

The opposite two situations derive from the final thesis that the present progress of the cryptocurrency market is the results of frontrunning the beginning of cash printing.

It’s assumed that the Fed both doesn’t consider the nice macro studies and doesn’t flip round, inflicting Bitcoin to crash to earlier lows. Or the Fed pivots, begins printing cash once more and launches the bull market at full capability. There’s little distinction between these two situations, Hayes says, because the market will win both means as they each contain the beginning of financial coverage easing.